Methodology
How picks are found, sized, published and graded. Everything here is also how the code works.
1. Finding mismatches
We look for spots where one team's weakness lines up with the other's strength, mostly driven by injuries and recent unit performance: a bad run defense against a workhorse back, a secondary missing its top corner against a volume receiver, an offensive line down two starters against a strong pass rush, weather that pushes a game toward the run. Each signal must explain itself in one sentence, which is the headline on every pick card.
The automated engine (NFL every game; NCAAF only games with at least one AP Top 25 team) starts publishing once its back-test clears. Until then the record is the owner's manual picks, tagged as such.
2. Confidence → stake
Confidence is a 1–10 score from the size of the edge, how many independent signals agree, and data quality. Each level maps to a stake in units, locked at publish time. If the table changes later, old picks keep their original stake.
| Confidence | Meaning | Stake |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rare, everything lines up | 2.00u |
| 9 | Strong mismatch, clear edge | 1.50u |
| 8 | Strong | 1.25u |
| 7 | Solid | 1.00u |
| 6 | Lean+ | 1.00u |
| 5 | Lean | 0.75u |
| 4 | Speculative | 0.50u |
| 3 | Long shot | 0.50u |
| 2 | Long shot / parlay | 0.25u |
| 1 | Lottery ticket | 0.25u |
Long shots (odds longer than +400) and every parlay are staked 0.25u regardless of confidence. Stake table version 1.
3. Publishing guardrails
- Official book is DraftKings; BetMGM when DraftKings doesn't offer the market. The price is re-fetched right before publishing and that price is the one on the record.
- Published no later than 30 minutes before kickoff, never after.
- Caps: at most 8 picks on an NFL Sunday (5 other days), 8 units at risk per day, 2 picks per game, never both sides of the same market.
- Automated picks also need a minimum edge, a minimum confidence of 3, and fresh injury data from two sources. A kill switch pauses everything.
4. Grading
- Game markets settle on the final score. Player props settle on the official box score. Landing exactly on the number is a push.
- A player who does not appear in the box score is treated as inactive and the bet is voided (stake 0), matching sportsbook rules.
- Parlays lose if any leg loses; a voided leg drops out and the parlay reprices on the remaining legs.
- Win pays stake × (decimal odds − 1); a loss is −stake. ROI is profit divided by units staked on decided bets.
- The closing line is captured just before kickoff. Closing line value (CLV) is the closing implied probability minus ours; beating the close consistently is the earliest sign the process works.
5. Nothing is deleted
Once a pick is public it can't be edited or removed, only voided with a reason shown on the card. Every result, including every loss, stays on the results page.